How Do You Know?
Gregory K. Moffatt, Ph.D.
I've been writing this column since 1994 - almost as long as the Citizen has been around. I've written hundreds of articles and several books, given dozens of interviews on television and radio, and I've lectured all over the world. But how can anyone be sure that any of what I've said is true?
People tend to believe what they read if someone has "Ph.D." after his name. Experience and education are not unimportant when determining the credibility of the speaker, but "Ph.D." alone doesn't validate what I'm saying.
In fact, researchers often provide contradictory data. In the 1970's scientists told us that the planet was cooling and a new ice age was imminent. Now we are told just the opposite. In the 1950's, doctors told us which cigarettes were "healthier." Twenty years ago we were told that birth control pills caused cancer, but now we are told they actually prevent some kinds of cancer.
Psychologists haven't been much better and on occasion their expert opinions have been profoundly misguided. In the 1970's psychologists said that children didn't need rules - that they should be allowed to find their own way. This created a generation of undisciplined and self-centered young adults that became known as the "me generation." And way back at the turn of the 20th century, famous behavioral psychologist John Watson instructed parents not to touch children unless they had to and not to show them too much attention because it wasn't good for them.
I've told you many things over these years. Limit television, don't spank if you don't have to, have a stay-home parent when possible, and breast feed your babies when you can. But how can you know that any of this is true and that some psychologist won't be telling you just the opposite in 20 years?
Here are some good habits to follow before you believe anything you read. Examine the study and ask several questions. For example, how many subjects were included in the study? Studies with small samples (those under 50 or so subjects) should be viewed with caution. You can find almost anything you want if your sample is small enough.
Also, remember that personal experiences do not constitute research. Anything is possible and we can expect a variety of outcomes based on coincidence alone. Don't ask, "Is it possible?" A good researcher asks, "Is it probable?" and that is the question sound research methodology answers.
Examine the length of time over which a study was conducted. Short-term studies are not as reliable as long-term studies. A study of a large sample over ten years is far more reliable than a study conducted in two weeks with 40 subjects. Likewise, if something shows up year after year in study after study, it is far more reliable than a single study done at one point in time.
Who conducted the study? Be cautious of any study conducted by anyone who has something personal to gain. For example, it is hard to believe Al Gore when he talks about global warming when I know that he has made millions of dollars on the cause he represents. This doesn't mean he is wrong. It just means I won't use anything he presents as a source to form my position on the subject.
Is the "evidence" personal opinion or something based on objective data? Just because someone says it, doesn't mean it is true. "In my opinion" is not evidence. On what is that opinion based? If that opinion is based on data, especially if the research is solid, then it may be something worth believing.
In summary, follow up on studies you read and see if they
make sense to you. The popular media, especially talk shows with
broad audiences like Oprah Winfrey, can easily sway public moods
by irresponsibly reporting either false data or research taken
out of context. These public sentiments lead to changed public
policy, often based on flimsy or downright fraudulent data. Our
responsibility as adults, parents, and thinkers is to evaluate
what we read and determine for ourselves the validity of the evidence
presented before we implement change in our homes. Always question
what you read. This includes commentaries in columns just like
this one.