Newspaper Column - The Citizen


Don't Believe The Experts

May 2012

Almost every week I see headlines that start with, "A new study shows…" You've probably heard it said that you shouldn't believe everything you read. That isn't bad advice. Just because reputed experts get something printed, doesn't mean that their words have any validity.

Studies are often wrong. In the 1970's scientists told us that the planet was cooling and we were on the verge of a new ice age. Now we are told that the world is getting warmer. Women were told in the 1970's and 80's that birth control pills increased cancer risks, while now, with a couple of exceptions, birth control pills, we are told, actually reduce the risk of some forms of cancer.

Psychologists haven't been immune to such errors. At the turn of the 19th century, a famous behaviorist named John Watson told parents that it was unhealthy to show attention to children and that they should be "touched as little as possible." In the late 1950's, many women were told that manufactured formula was much better for their babies than breast milk. In the 1970's, psychologists told parents that children should be allowed to make their own choices - that they would naturally choose the right things. All of these things have been shown to be false.

Can you even believe what you read in this column? A friend and I had a friendly disagreement over one of my recent columns where I debunked the research that showed immunizations caused autism in children. My position was formed based on a set of criteria by which I evaluate research. Consider these five rules for evaluating what you read.

First, is the article you are reading or hearing reported something that is merely an expert opinion or is it a legitimate study? Anyone can have an opinion. An opinion isn't necessarily wrong, but it doesn't have to be based on anything of substance. Rigorous research follows strict standards and ethics before a conclusion can be made.

Second, are research results presented as tentative? Never believe anyone who says "we have proven…" Researchers never use the word proven. For example, Al Gore may be correct that the earth is warming, but when he said "the debate is over," he demonstrated to me that he didn't understand research. Good researchers are always willing to continue the debate, even when they disagree.

Third, look for bias in the study. Who wrote it, funded it, and who is saying it? It is very hard to take Al Gore seriously when I know that he stands to make millions of dollars from green energy policy. Likewise, anytime I see a study claiming the benefits of daycare, I can almost be certain that the researcher is a feminist. There is nothing inherently wrong with feminism, but the potential for bias is clear. Likewise, when I see "data" that show homosexuality is a choice and I see that the researcher is a conservative and/or religious leader, I see the same potential for bias.

Fourth, is the thing that you are reading consistent with similar research? Good research is done in such a way that it can be replicated. When I read the same results from different researchers in different places, I am far more convinced than I am by the results from a single study.

Finally, does it make sense? Are the results consistent with what we know and even if the results don't match your personal experience, is it reasonable to think it might be true? For example, in 1989 two researchers named Pons and Fleischmann claimed to have produced nuclear fusion in a glass of cold water - something known as cold fusion. Their claim was ridiculous and contradicted everything physicists know about nuclear fusion.

That didn't stop Pons and Fleischmann from not only garnering headlines worldwide, but also acquiring huge research grants until their respective retirements.

In regard to working with children, I ask myself what happens if I implement some new system and it is wrong. What are the risks? When the risks are high, I am especially cautious. So despite the title of my article, you can believe some of what you read, but be a thoughtful reader. Evaluate research carefully before you change what you eat, how you treat your spouse and children, and how you behave.